To Pay or Not to Pay - that is the (Ottawa Taxpayer’s next) Question: Funding the (Proposed) Lebreton Flats Arena
Location, location, location.
Realtors say it, and hockey fans in Ottawa live it.
For years, Senators fans have dreamed of cheering on their team in a state-of-the-art arena in the heart of the city. That dream took a tangible step forward this week when the Senators secured land at LeBreton Flats - a central location with far more accessibility, nightlife, and visibility than their current home in the suburb of Kanata.
It’s a promising development.
Kanata’s Canadian Tire Centre has long been criticized for its isolation, with limited transit options, horrendous parking, and few attractions nearby. Moving downtown could transform game-day energy and strengthen the team’s connection to the community.
Before anyone starts getting their hopes up, though, it’s important to remember: buying land is only the first period of a long, hard-fought game.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
LeBreton Flats isn’t shovel-ready.
The land has a history of industrial use, meaning environmental decontamination will likely be necessary before construction begins. There’s also the potential for Indigenous land claims, which could require negotiation and settlement before development proceeds. Each of these challenges can delay - or even derail - a project. (And, no - I’m not talking about the city’s infamous Light Rail Transit.)
Significant work and funding will be needed before the first brick is laid. In short, there is no guarantee that the stars will align to enable a new arena to be built in the near future. As the saying goes, “Nothing in life is guaranteed - except death and taxes.”
Speaking of taxes…
Who is going to pay for this (potential) new arena?
Public Money, Private Team
Billionaire sports team owners have a long and distinguished history of asking for handouts from local taxpayers.
Let’s assume this trend will continue.
Professional sports franchises frequently seek public funding to cover a portion of construction costs - often arguing that a new arena will spur economic growth, increase tourism, and revitalize surrounding neighborhoods.
While this isn’t often borne out by the data, in theory, Ottawa taxpayers could see a return on their investment through increased economic activity: more people attending games, concerts, and other events; more visitors staying in hotels and eating at local restaurants; and higher property values in the area.
How could Ottawa taxpayers possibly make an informed decision regarding the funding of a new arena?
I’m glad you asked.
Crunching the Numbers
The economic impact of a new arena is typically calculated by following a five-step process:
Define the Geographic Area of Impact - In this case, the National Capital Region.
Determine Incremental Visitors - Only incremental visitor (or “new”) spending counts when conducting an economic impact analysis. Incremental visitors exclude locals, causal visitors, and time-switchers.
Locals - Are self-explanatory - those who reside in the local area.
Casual visitors - Are visitors who were already in town for another reason and happened to attend an event at the arena - think the government employee visiting Ottawa for a conference, who just so happens to take in a Sens game during a free evening.
Time-switchers - Are visitors who could have come to town at another time, but opted to come during an event hosted at the arena - think of the son who was going to visit his father in Ottawa on Father’s Day, but instead decides to visit the following weekend, because the Leafs are in town to beat play the Sens.
Analyze Direct Spending - This would include all spending made by incremental visitors and businesses, as a result of the newly constructed arena. This data would be obtained via surveys asking attendees about their spending patterns and whether the event created a new trip to Ottawa.
Measure and Subtract Costs - Public spending and opportunity costs must be deducted to avoid double-counting the economic benefit to taxpayers.
Calculate Indirect and Induced Impact - This refers to the ripple effect, as direct spending circulates through the local economy through wages, suppliers, and local taxes.
Is it possible that a new arena could stimulate businesses in the downtown core? Sure. Could restaurants and hotels see an increase in revenue? Absolutely. Might this spending be recycled in the community through wages for employees, that would subsequently support local establishments? That is most certainly a possibility.
But it’s important to look at the net economic impact on the geographic area, as a whole.
Would this spending be “new” to the city of Ottawa, or simply displaced? Would any money spent downtown, as a result of the new arena, just otherwise have been money that would have been spent in Kanata? Are people, who would otherwise not have visited Ottawa, be drawn (along with their wallets) to the city, specifically to attend an event at the new arena?
It will be important for taxpayers to consider these questions.
The Pitfalls of Projections
History shows that economic impact projections are often overly optimistic. Analysts hired by teams have strong incentives to assume high attendance and spending, while politicians may be eager to tout job creation and urban revitalization to bolster their own legacies.
The reality is that professional sports team owners are wealthy, and reducing their construction costs only increases their profit margins. Meanwhile, politicians want ribbon-cuttings and re-election campaigns boosted by “big wins.” Both sides have reasons to present a rosy picture.
And don’t forget opportunity cost - public funds spent on an arena can’t be spent on other pressing priorities like housing, transit, or healthcare, each of which carries its own economic and social returns. Ignoring that trade-off risks evaluating the project in a vacuum.
The result?
The economic impact of new arenas is often overestimated, and usually does not provide a good return on investment for taxpayers.
The catch?
It can take years of hard data to prove whether an arena actually delivered a positive return for taxpayers. By then, the political and financial architects of the deal may be long gone.
The Emotional ROI
Although I’ve focused primarily on the financial aspect of a potential arena deal, I must acknowledge that not all benefits are capable of showing up on a spreadsheet.
Ottawa’s current arena has been a source of frustration for fans and players alike. A downtown, state-of-the-art facility could rejuvenate the fan base, attract top free agents, and draw world-class entertainment acts. More importantly, it could create a shared civic space, enhance Ottawa’s national profile, and provide a gathering place for moments of collective pride - whether that’s a playoff run, a gold medal hockey game, or a sold-out concert.
These intangible benefits may be difficult to quantify, but they’re undeniably real.
Conclusion
The purchase at LeBreton Flats is an exciting first step toward bringing the Senators downtown, but it’s just that - a first step. Buying land is easy; building a legacy is hard.
Environmental cleanup, legal considerations, and the thorny politics of public funding all stand between the team and their goal. The Senators’ downtown dream will take more than just paperwork and promises - it will take political will, financial backing, and a city ready to rally behind it.
The coming years will reveal whether this deal marks the beginning of a new era in Ottawa hockey, or just another missed opportunity.
